Japanese Yen

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The Yen has received a nice boost from Japanese exporters, which moved en masse to exchange Dollars for Yen to meet certain year-end financial obligations.  The logic is that exporters had owed money in arrears to domestic Japanese producers of the goods and services being exported and needed to be paid in Yen. Such logic could theoretically be applied to exporters in ever country, which would provide the same boost to their respective currencies.   However, in addition to being the world’s fourth-largest exporter, Japan’s economy is unusually dependent on exports.  Thus, it is understandable that Japanese exporters could exert such influence on forex markets when entering the market at the same time.

Read More: Yen Rises on Speculation Japanese Exporters Buying the Currency

Original post by Jimmy Atkinson and software by Elliott Back

It’s been rough sailing for the Yen carry trade of late; the technique had been sagging in popularity due to the credit crunch and the associated trend towards risk aversion.  Over the last few weeks, however, the Yen has fallen, which is to say the Yen Carry Trade is making a comeback.  First came the announcement that the world’s leading Central Banks would be injecting hundreds of billions of dollars in the banking system, in order to ease growing liquidity concerns.  Next, the Bank of Japan hinted that it would hold rates at .5%, the lowest in the industrialized world.  Finally, a continued surge in commodity prices virtually ensures that countries rich in natural resources, such as Canada and Australia, remain viable "targets" for carry traders.  Overall, the story remains focused around volatility.  In fact, one investment bank discovered an inverse correlation between the S&P 500 and the Japanese Yen.  In other words, the appetite for risk appears closely correlated with the strength of global capital markets and the popularity of the Yen carry trade.  Bloomberg News reports:

Over the last fortnight, that odd correlation with equities has broken
down…Instead the fundamental factors behind
carry trades have come to the fore again. Investors are paying
attention to Japan’s economy.

Read More: The resources to carry on

Original post by Jimmy Atkinson and software by Elliott Back

While covering the emergence of the carry trade over the
last couple years, the Forex Blog has echoed the sentiments of the
self-proclaimed experts, who argued that Japanese interest rates would never
rise enough to seriously threaten the carry trade. Instead, any threats would have to come in
the form of volatility, which would theoretically drive traders to spur the
comparatively high returns of carry trading in favor of low risk.  As if on cue, the carry trade has retreated
significantly as the credit crisis aka housing bubble shockwave has rippled
through global capital markets.  As the negative fallout builds, many of the
carry traders who braved the first storm are rushing for the exits.  Bloomberg News reports:

Volatility implied by dollar-yen currency options expiring
in one week with a strike price near current levels rose to 13.25 percent… Traders quote implied volatility, a gauge of
expected swings in exchange rates, as part of pricing options.

Read More: Yen Advances on
Concern Credit Losses Will Deter Carry Trades

Original post by Jimmy Atkinson and software by Elliott Back

The carry trade is officially unwinding, if not coming to an outright end; the result is that the Yen is belatedly joining the ranks of the rest of the world’s major currencies, which have risen tremendously against the Dollar.  The reason for the sudden weakness in the carry trade (i.e. Yen strength) is volatility.  The US "credit crunch" began to significantly effect US bond and stock market valuations almost four months ago, but the full impact still hasn’t been felt.  The latest development concerns the quarterly earnings release for Freddie Mac, an American company whose main purpose is to provide liquidity to the US mortgage market, through the buying and selling of mortgage-backed securities.  However, Freddie Mac is now bleeding money, and while it is unofficially guaranteed by the federal government, investors are seriously questioning its ability to prop up the ailing market for housing CDOs.  And this uncertainty is causing investors to eschew risk, in short, to abandon the carry trade in favor of more traditional forex strategies.  Reuters reports:

The low-yielding Japanese currency tends to do well in times of risk aversion because investors unwind carry trades that use cheaply borrowed yen to buy higher-yielding currencies.

Read More: Dollar sinks to 2-year low vs yen, euro hits highs

Original post by Jimmy Atkinson and software by Elliott Back

Yesterday, the Financial Times ran two stories on the Japanese carry trade, painting a seemingly contradictory picture.  The first article profiled the rise in the number of retail forex accounts in Japan, projected to reach 1 million by year-end.  More amazing is the fact that many of these traders are actually quite sophisticated, taking long and short positions in multiple currencies, though of course the most popular bet remains the carry trade, which involves going short the Yen and long a higher-yielding currency.  Meanwhile, as the second article expounded, the Yen carry trade is under pressure, having appreciated nearly 5% against the US Dollar, Euro and Australian Dollar.  The cause is certainly volatility in global capital markets, precipitated by what has been termed a "credit crunch," itself caused by the slump in housing prices. The hoard of Japanese retail investors may have to reverse their positions…

Read More: Pressure grows on yen carry trades and Forex Lures Japanese Investors

Original post by Jimmy Atkinson and software by Elliott Back

As expected, the Bank of Japan left its benchmark interest
rate unchanged at its latest meeting.  The current rate of .5% remains the lowest in
the industrialized world and thus will continue to fuel the Japanese carry
trade.  The Bank fended off the criticism
of several European Ministers, wary of the Yen’s continued appreciation against
the Euro, including a 5% increase in the last month alone. The EU has insisted that Japan should
hike rates immediately both to avoid global economic imbalances and to prevent its
own economy from overheating.  Japan defended
its decision by pointing to certain small business indicators, which suggest
the sector is still underperforming.  Carry
traders, rest easy. Bloomberg News
reports:

“The Bank of Japan will probably need to put off a hike at
least until December to nail down its assessment of global growth as well as
the performance of small companies,” said Masaaki Kanno, a former central bank
official

Read More: Bank of Japan Votes 8-1 to Keep Key Rate at 0.5%

Original post by Jimmy Atkinson and software by Elliott Back

Japan’s Central Bank now controls over $950 Billion in foreign exchange reserves, second only to those of China.  While Japan is not accumulating significant new reserves, its existing reserves have appreciated in value due to the Euro’s recent ascent.  Analysts are keeping a close eye on the reserves of both countries, which represent close to 50% of the world’s foreign exchange reserves.  In addition, analysts will be watching China, which may take a cue from Japan and diversify some of its reserves into Euro-denominated assets in order to offset the effect of the declining Dollar.  AFX News Limited reports:

Japan’s reserves are closely watched for evidence of how the country is managing its foreign currency holdings. Its actions are seen as having a significant impact on exchange rates and bond markets around the world, particularly the US government bond market.

Read More: Japan’s forex reserves rise to record

Original post by Jimmy Atkinson and software by Elliott Back

The Japanese Yen is finally appreciating, though how long the
upward streak will last is anyone’s guess.  These days, the Yen rises and falls on the
whims of carry traders.  However, the
enemy of the carry trade is volatility and the Fed’s lowering of US interest
rates injected enough uncertainty into the markets to send carry traders slowly
towards the exit.  As a result,
currencies such as the Australian Dollar and New Zealand Kiwi, long popular with
in carry trading circles, were quickly dumped as traders bought Yen to cover
their positions. Whether the Yen can
sustain its momentum depends primarily on the Central Bank of Japan. Bloomberg News reports:

Carry trades utilizing the New Zealand dollar lost 1.9
percent today, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, after gaining 2.3
percent so far this week as the Federal Reserve reduced the U.S. rate a half
percentage point to 4.75 percent.

Read More: New Zealand Dollar Drops as Japanese Investors Return to Yen

Original post by Jimmy Atkinson and software by Elliott Back

The US dollar and euro did very well on Thursday, while the yen dropped in comparison. Investors, temporarily confident about the US mortgage crisis, have returned to riskier, higher yielding ventures. So, while Asian and European stocks are going strong, the yen will suffer until the next scare. Reuters reports:

Eyes are now turning to the European Central Bank’s interest
rate decision. Expectations of a rate hike from the ECB have
diminished since a credit market squeeze that has forced the
bank to inject liquidity into the banking system. Most analysts
now expect rates to be kept on hold at 4 percent.

Read more: Yen slips as risk appetite edges back

Original post by Amy Cottrell and software by Elliott Back

Credit problems in the US have been the source of much turmoil throughout the global markets in the past few months. Tuesday was good for the US dollar, which held strong against both the yen and the euro. However, forthcoming economic reports from the US may or may not tip the scales. According to Reuters:

"The panic is almost over, but the market has lost its direction and is
waiting for more news, especially any good news," said Kikuko Takeda, a
currency strategist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ.

Read more: Dollar drifts as U.S. data awaited for direction

Original post by Amy Cottrell and software by Elliott Back

Investors, confident that the US mortgage situation could be weathered, pulled money out of the yen on Wednesday and put it back into risky carry trades. However, things did not look so promising for the US on Thursday. As a result, the yen was once again strengthened by nervous investors. Reuters reports:

The yen brushed off a rebound in European and Asian stocks
and climbed after British newspaper The Times reported that the
co-head of RBS Greenwich Capital’s collateralised debt
obligations unit had left the bank along with six colleagues.

Read more: Yen recovers as spotlight returns to subprime fallout

Original post by Amy Cottrell and software by Elliott Back

While the US had a rough day yesterday, European stocks performed well enough to tempt investors away from the yen. Though a stable currency, the yen is a low-yielding investment and traders are ready to try their hand at a riskier venture with European stocks. There is no word yet on how this may affect Wall Street. According to Forbes:

This has pushed the yen down as investors make tentative steps back to
engaging in the risky carry trade - where investors sell low-yielding
currencies such as the yen to buy higher-yielding ones elsewhere. With
no US data due this afternoon, how equities fare on Wall Street is
likely to determine whether the rise in risk appetite can be sustained.

Read more: Yen falls back as stable European stocks prompt revival in risk appetite

Original post by Amy Cottrell and software by Elliott Back

Once again, fear of US mortgage problems has led investors back to arms of the reliable yen. A low-yield, low-risk currency, the Japanese yen has become a safe haven for skittish traders in recent weeks. Investors are right to be concerned, as the US housing market hasn’t been in this kind of shape in two decades. Reuters reports:

The yen extended gains against the dollar after a measure
of U.S. home prices reflected the biggest year-on-year decline
in the second quarter since 1987.

Read more: Yen rises as credit fears swirl

Original post by Amy Cottrell and software by Elliott Back

Following a tumultuous period that stemmed from mortgage problems in the US, the global markets are finally calming down. While this is good news for most, the Japanese yen is weakening as a result. Why the change? Investors are feeling more confident about high-yielding ventures once again, leading them to pull out of the yen and continue with high-risk carry trading. Reuters reports:

While confidence in global credit markets has by no means
been fully restored and fears remain that short-term liquidity
could dry up, investors across a range of asset classes felt
bold enough to shun safe-havens and seek higher returns.

Read more: Yen lower as calm returns to markets

Original post by Amy Cottrell and software by Elliott Back

Despite the effects of US subprime mortgage troubles on the rest of the world, investors have scaled back risky ventures and increased the value of both dollar and yen. While this result may be inadvertent, it is much appreciated by those who have lost major funds in the stock market recently. The future doesn’t look any brighter for US mortgage, either. According to Hemscott:

Housing starts sank 6.1 pct in July to a 1.381 million unit annual rate, the
lowest since January, while building permits — a more forward-looking indicator
– fell 2.8 pct to a 1.373 million rate, the lowest since October of 1996.

Read more: Dollar and yen continue higher amid flight to safety

Original post by Amy Cottrell and software by Elliott Back

With the United States’ mortgage problems trickling into Europe, many investors have been thrown into a panic. However, the Japanese have reduced their high-risk investments, moving funds back into the reliable yen. As a result, the yen is fairing much better than other currencies. Those who have suffered from this sudden scramble include New Zealand and Australia. According to Forbes:

The increasing pressures in credit markets — with the European Central
Bank yesterday injecting 95 bln eur to boost liquidity in euro money
markets — came on fears that the US subprime mortgage troubles may be
spreading to Europe. Several banks admitted exposure to subprime
markets, and BNP Paribas
froze three asset-backed funds. This caused investors to panic and cut
their exposure to carry trades — the use of low-yielding currencies to
fund higher-yielding investments.

Read more: Yen still strong on risk aversion

Original post by Amy Cottrell and software by Elliott Back

Last week witnessed a sudden unwinding in the yen carry
trade, as a global market downturn affected investor sentiment towards
risk. Volatility is the only market
force that could seriously contend at collapsing the carry trade, and last week
produced significant volatility. All of
the world’s majors fell against the Yen, namely the New Zealand Kiwi, which
fell by 7.5%. The kiwi, you may recall,
has been one of the main currencies on the other end of the carry trade, due to
its high interest rates. However, analysts
are reluctant to proclaim an outright end to the popular carry trade,
preferring to wait and see how volatile the world’s capital markets appear in
the coming weeks. The Financial Times
reports:

The wave of risk reduction also prompted investors to take
profits in the Australian and New Zealand dollars, which have surged this year
from central bank credit tightening or expectations of more tightening to come.

Read More: Yen hits 3-month high versus euro

Original post by Jimmy Atkinson and software by Elliott Back

The Japanese Yen has slid to
a record low against the Euro, with no obvious end in sight to the wounded
currency’s multi-year decline. The
basis for the continued yen weakness is the expectation that Japan will hold
interest rates at current levels until the end of the summer, a notion that was
reinforced by the Bank of Japan yesterday. As a result, carry traders, who categorically fear volatility, can feel
confident that a continued low interest rate environment will support the viability
of the Yen carry trade in the short-term. However, there are a few risks in the horizon, namely that Japan’s
economy and stock market are outperforming and could prompt a series of rate
hikes in the fall and lure Japanese capital back to Japan. DailyFX reports:

The rallies are
becoming overextended of course and the risk of some action by the Japanese
government is increasing, but until carry traders have a reason to bail, they
probably will not.

Read More: Japanese Yen Continues to Fall

Original post by Jimmy Atkinson and software by Elliott Back

Since July, the Japanese Yen has notched a stellar performance in climbing 15% against the Dollar, without garnering much attention.  Within the last week, however, analysts have begun to take notice, as the carry trade temporarily collapsed and the Yen appreciated by another 3%. ‘But Japan’s Central Bank is no hurry to raise interest rates,’ you are probably wondering. ‘What on earth is all the fuss about?’ Volatility, the sworn enemy of carry traders has exploded.  Global capital markets, including the US stock market, are in a state of turmoil. The financial services industry, the perennial bulwark of the US economy, is set to record its worst year in recent memory.  Leading the way, so-to-speak, is Citigroup, which recently announced that it will write-down an additional $10 Billion in worthless subprime paper and will also receive a proportionately large infusion of capital.  Cue exit music for carry traders. Bloomberg News reports:

"The global and risk environment is dominating yen
pricing,” said Chris Turner, head of currency research at ING
Financial Markets in London. "There’s risk aversion in the
background.”

Read More: Yen Rises as Traders Pare Carry Trades on Credit-Market Losses

Original post by Jimmy Atkinson and software by Elliott Back

As Asian capital markets crash in unison, the Japanese Yen is rising at its fastest pace in years.  Taken out of context, that sounds like a contradiction, since a positive correlation typically obtains between the strength of a nation’s economy, capital markets, and currency.  However, the Yen is unique, as most forex traders are doubtlessly aware.  The Yen rises and falls with the whims of the carry trade, which in turn is tied closely to volatility.  And in case you haven’t noticed, global capital markets are seesawing to such an extent that by some measures, volatility levels have reached a nine-year high.  One analyst has drawn a parallel between the current credit crisis and the 1998 Asian economic crisis, which also produced a Yen rally.

Read More: History Points to a Yen Rally

Original post by Jimmy Atkinson and software by Elliott Back

The US stock market has lost over 10% of its capitalization since reaching an all-time high in October of last year.  Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen has climbed at least as much in proportional terms since bottoming out around the same time.  Coincidence?  At least one analyst doesn’t think so. Because of the steadfast popularity of the carry trade, the Japanese Yen appears to have developed an inverse correlation with the US stock markets.  The reasoning is actually quite simple. When aversion to risk is low, investors borrow in Japanese Yen and make investments denominated in other currencies, the Dollar for one.  When risk-aversion increases, as it has in the current economic environment, investors have been quick to close out their carry trade positions, causing the Yen to rise. Maktoob Business reports:

If the situation of
stock markets is improving, the USD/JPY is likely to be increasing. It
means that more carry trade transaction are being carried out.

Read More: Fundamental analysis - Market Correlations

Yen

Original post by Jimmy Atkinson and software by Elliott Back

Most of the world’s major currencies are affected by a variety of technical and fundamental factors, such that only taking into account one factor is tantamount to using P/E multiples as the sole basis for purchasing shares of stock. The New Zealand Dollar, which barely qualifies as a major currency seems to be one of the few exceptions to this common sense rule.  The preponderance of carry traders involved in trading the Yen ensures that the NZD inversely tracks the Japanese Yen.  In addition, the demand for Kiwi is directly proportional to appetite for risk, such that when risk aversion declines, the Kiwi increases, and vice versa.  The reasoning is quite simple: the Kiwi boasts the highest interest rates in the industrialized world. Because the investment climate in New Zealand is less stable than in other industrialized countries, New Zealand often witnesses capital flight during periods of global economic uncertainty.  The New Zealand Herald reports:

Gains in equities markets emboldened investors to take chances, prompting use of the low-yielding yen to buy assets in higher-yielding currencies like the kiwi in carry trades.

Read More: Equities send dollar up

Original post by Jimmy Atkinson and software by Elliott Back

In recent periods of Dollar Weakness, all of the major currencies have been quick to capitalize- all but the Japanese Yen.  After a while, it became clear that the Yen was being held down by carry traders, who sold Yen in favor of higher-yielding, more risky currencies.  It was long believed that the only thing that would shake the Yen loose from its moorings was not a Japanese interest rate hike or economic growth, but volatility in capital and forex markets.  Sure enough, the explosion of the credit crisis induced a rapid appreciation in the Yen.  Yesterday, it crashed through the psychological milestone of 100 for the first time since 1995.

But can the Yen sustain this momentum? On paper, if the Dollar continues to fall, it seems the answer is ‘Yes.’ However, Japan’s economy is extremely dependent on exports. In fact, 50% of its 2007 GDP growth can be attributed to exports. With the Dollar crashing, Japan’s exports are becoming less competitive, and its exports to the US (estimated at $150 Billion) are in jeopardy. In addition, Japanese consumers are notoriously tight-fisted, so it’s unclear who would pick up the slack if the export sector falters.  This begs another question: will the Bank of Japan be forced to intervene in currency markets (like it did in 1995) in order to prevent its economy from dipping into recession? The Wall Street Journal reports:

Its big budget deficit makes a stimulus package more difficult. Intervention — which Tokyo also tried in 2004 during a bout of yen strength — would fly in the face of efforts by the U.S. and other nations to let markets decide currency values.

Read More: Japan Economy Quakes Anew As Yen Soars Against Dollar

Original post by Jimmy Atkinson and software by Elliott Back

Over the weekend, Bear Stearns, a prestigious American investment bank,
hurriedly scrambled to find a buyer in order to avoid having to file
for bankruptcy. While a buyer (JP Morgan) was ultimately secured,
investors remained jittery, as the collapse of this magnitude is virtually unprecedented.  When forex markets
re-opened on Monday, the Dollar crashed against all of the world’s
major currencies, namely the Euro and the Yen. Furthermore, analysts
are now beginning to view forex intervention as increasingly likely. It’s
still unclear whether the Bank of Japan or the European Central Bank
(with or without support from the Fed) would spearhead any
such intervention.  At the breakneck speed at which events are unfolding,
however, no one will be surprised if a plan is quickly cobbled together. The Wall
Street Journal reports:

"Were such intervention to be seen, (the euro) could briefly trade down
to $1.55, yet unless the (ECB) is prepared to back up such intervention
with a rate cut, intervention will be futile," said [one analyst].

Read More: Dollar’s Slide Keeps Pace

Original post by Jimmy Atkinson and software by Elliott Back

Yesterday, the Forex Blog reported that the risk of intervention in forex markets is growing, in order to prop up an ailing Dollar.  The focus of the post was on the Euro, which is hovering below the record high of $1.60 reached last week. With this post, we wish to extend coverage of the potential intervention to include Japan.  In some respects, Japan is actually a more likely candidate for intervention, since it has a history of actively depressing its currency.  Most recently, in 2004, it accumulated $350 Billion in Dollar-denominated assets in a large scale effort to keep the Yen from rising out of control. 

Japan’s consumers are notoriously tightfisted, and consequently, its economy is dependent on the export sector to drive growth. Unfortunately, the more expensive Yen is making this sector less competitive. In addition, Japan’s new Prime Minister has yet to lay out an economic plan, and the stock market is foundering. A number of creative solutions are being mulled, including one to buy American mortgage-backed securities, in order to head off the international opposition to intervention. The New York Times reports:

That might win Washington’s approval by helping to ease the credit squeeze in the United States, but given such securities’ role in precipitating the crisis of the last several months, it might well set off cries of dismay here.

Read More: As Dollar Keeps Falling, Talk of a Move by Japan

Original post by Jimmy Atkinson and software by Elliott Back

After the Fed cut its benchmark lending rate by 75 basis points last week, the Dollar immediately rallied 2.5% against the Japanese Yen, marking its highest daily rise in nine years.  Some analysts are at a loss to explain this phenomenon, since a narrower interest rate differential should have produced the opposite effect.  Perhaps, the answer can be found in the carry trade, whereby investors sell Yen in favor of higher-yielding currencies.  Support for the carry trade typically moves inversely with volatility.  For example, when risk aversion rises due to economic uncertainty, investors typically unwind their carry trade positions.  With the Fed rate cut last week, however, risk aversion actually fell, and the S&P 500 Index surged.  By no coincidence, the Yen fell. Reuters reports:
As U.S. stocks rallied, with investors willing to take on more risk, the dollar recouped some of Monday’s sharp losses versus the low-yielding yen.

Original post by Jimmy Atkinson and software by Elliott Back

For several months, the Central Bank of Japan had been leaderless, creating a situation that was politically and economically awkward.  Finally, after much debate, Masaaki Shirakawa, a former academic and veteran central banker, was appointed.  It is unclear what effect Mr. Shirakawa will have on Japan’s economy, which is foundering (for reasons unrelated to the global credit crunch).  He is considered highly competent, and analysts have suggested that he could help Japan develop a sensible and focused economic policy, which has been lacking for quite a while. With regard to monetary policy, he is unlikely to either raise or lower interest rates from the current level of .5%.  Thus, if he is to return Japan to economic credibility, he will have to use other methods. Nonetheless, analysts are optimistic. The New York Times reports:
Simply having a hand at the central bank’s tiller will do much to restore global confidence in Japan and its ability to manage its $5 trillion economy, economists and former bank officials said.

Original post by Jimmy Atkinson and software by Elliott Back

"The credit crisis is over! No it’s not! Yes it is!"

Such back and forth represents the tenor of the debate currently transpiring in the financial markets. Every day seems to bring new economic data, which is quickly seized upon by both sides as evidence for their respective positions, causing the markets to rise and fall accordingly. In this regard, the Japanese Yen and the Swiss Franc serve as proxies for investor sentiment. When the markets rally, investors are quick to dump both currencies in favor of higher-yielding alternatives. On the other hand, when a large investment bank announces a write-down on its subprime investments, or when economic data indicate falling housing prices, investors are quick to unwind their short positions (carry trades). The advice of the Forex Blog is to take every development in stride and to remember that no definitive conclusions can be reached at this point.

Read More: Yen Weakens on Speculation Worst of Financial Crisis Is Over

Original post by Jimmy Atkinson and software by Elliott Back

Most of the stories and analysis featured on the Forex Blog concern the Dollar, or at the very least, how other currencies are performing relative to the Dollar. But there are many important currency pairs that don’t involve the Greenback, including the Euro/Yen. Last week, the Euro climbed to its highest level in 2008 against the Yen, thanks to diverging economies and interest rates. Neither economy is particularly strong, but the Bank of Japan is using especially bearish language to describe its faltering economy. It should be noted that despite a prolonged period of economic growth, the Bank of Japan avoided raising interest rates even once. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is becoming increasingly hawkish in its monetary policy rhetoric. The result has been a sustained (and soon-to-widen) interest rate differential, which has contributed to a dynamic that is unique to these two currencies. Bloomberg News reports:

The yen fell against every major counterpart
today after a government report showed Japan’s longest postwar
expansion may be over.

Read More: Euro Climbs to Year’s Highest Against Yen on Rate Speculation

Original post by Jimmy Atkinson and software by Elliott Back

Volatility, the perennial enemy of the carry trade, has returned with a vengeance. The US stock market, a proxy for global risk appetite, has fallen significantly (nearly 20%) over the last six months, a trend that has accelerated over the last two weeks. By no coincidence, the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc have rallied dramatically over the same time period. On one hand, currency trading is seemingly becoming more cut-and-dried, as correlations strengthen between different sectors of the global capital markets and specific currencies. The respective inverse relationships between the Dollar and oil, and between the Yen and US stocks, have been particularly strong of late. In the end, though, it is anyone’s best guess whether the price of oil will continue to rise and stocks will continue to fall. Reuters reports:

"We’re back on the brink," said one analyst. "It seems there is a feeling of resignation and helplessness amid this credit crisis."

Read More: Yen and Swiss franc gain as risk appetite fades

Original post by Jimmy Atkinson and software by Elliott Back

As the credit crisis has unfolded, the Dollar has remained (relatively) strong, especially considering the deteriorating state of its economy. The reason for this, of course, is that in times of crisis, investors flock to perceived safe havens, such as the US and EU. However, an especially pessimistic series of economic developments has called into question the wiseness of this strategy. A handful of American banks and mortgage institutions have already collapsed, and bankruptcies in all sectors of the economy will surely become more common. The picture in Europe is equally bleak. Several economic indicators have fallen to multi-year lows, and the ECB’s decision to hike rates looks increasingly misguided. Given these circumstances, where can investors turn? Perhaps, to Japan and Switzerland, reports The Market Oracle:

The Swiss franc and the Japanese yen…were the great beneficiaries during the Crash of ‘87, the Debt Crisis of 1998 and again during the current credit crisis, enjoying sweeping and massive upward moves.

Read More: Crisis Currencies Poised to Surge as Frightened Capital Flows from Risk to Safety

Original post by Jimmy Atkinson and software by Elliott Back